Comdisco - slight erosion in CDR value

One of the risks with liquidation is that the shareholder value can erode over time. This may occur because realized value for assets may be lower than originally estimated—this doesn't apply to Comdisco but imagine the estimated liquidation value of real estate in 2007 versus now—or because of errors with accounting statements. Due to some minor errors in the accounting statement and lowered expectation of future gains from sales, Comdisco's potential payout for the Rights holders has declined slightly whereas the overall shareholder payout has increased slightly (negligible amount.) The following graphic shows the financial statements from 4Q 2008 versus 1Q 2009:



Note that the numbers in the financial statements—unaudited by the way—may not be the final outcome. Nevertheless, it gives an estimate and I rely on it.

In this case, the amount Comdisco has set aside for the Contingent Distribution Right liability has declined from $22,079,000 to $20,758,000. This is a 6% decline and is quite sizeable if you consider the fact that the market is barely up 6% this year (but, although it's somewhat sizeable, it isn't very large compared to the 58.2%liquidation estimate I came up with.)

As for book value, it increased by 0.2% so shareholders gained a bit, although it's insignificant.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular Posts

Thoughts on the stock market - March 2020

Image
Right now, DJIA has a P/E of 16.8 and forwand P/E of 15.1, whereas S&P 500 is at 20.1 with forward P/E of 15.8. Source: WSJ market Data If you ignore interest rates and inflation expectations--both of these influence valuations but depends on your macro call-- the market is not cheap. Long-term P/E is around 15. Trailing P/E is around 20% (Dow) to 40% (S&P500) higher than average. Forward P/E is in line with long term average but that assumes a strong V recovery. Consensus forecast is for profits to drop 1.2% in 2020. In 2008, it dropped 25.4% so current forecast is a very mild recession. Covid-19 coronavirus is not going to last more than a few months but these forecasts are still too rosy in my opinion. So I wouldn't rely on forward P/E. The richly valued (mostly tech or high quality) have not fallen much but the distressed ones have. So if you want to outperform in the long run, I think one’s choice right now is to: • Wait for market to fall another, say
✖ READ MORE >>>

Warren Buffett's Evolution and his Three Investment Styles

Image
A Young Warren Buffett In a comment to one of my posts , Mark Carter, who incidentally appears to have a  good blog worth checking out , asked: "Buffett Prime is 1970's to early 1990's" Could you elaborate? I have vaguely indicated how I view Warren Buffett in the past, but I thought I would detail my view of his investing behaviour. This is more of an opinion piece and many others would disagree with me (if you do, I'm curious to hear your thoughts). I don't follow Warren Buffett as closely as many value investors so I may get some facts wrong. My view is that Warren Buffett went through three different phases, with each consisting of different investment techniques. The overall investment theory remained the same—what people call value investing—but his execution, tactics, and strategy differs across the three phases. Some people may break up his career into additional periods but my feeling is that the three I will describe essentially capt
✖ READ MORE >>>

Hugh Hendry discussion at the Alternative Investment Conference

Thanks to Value Investing World for bringing this Hugh Hendry interview to my attention. I may not agree with all the things—short-term orientation of hedge funds is actually worse IMO; the sharp pencil effect doesn't always work—but Hendry is a true contrarian and worth listening. Like Marc Faber or Jim Rogers, you also can't take everything Hugh Hendry says seriously. I had always felt Hugh Hendry was firmly in the deflation camp but I get the feeling that he is now opening up to high-inflation possibilities. Otherwise, his stance appears to be similar to past opinions.
✖ READ MORE >>>