Can Turtles Fly?

American Retail Bankruptcies (to Q1 2017) So far, retail industry is on pace to set a post-financial-crisis peak. Retail is definitely overbuilt in America and consumer debt is also too high, so the shrinking of the industry is not a huge surprise to me (the industry is growing overall but most of it is in Internet sales and the number of retailers are shrinking). Internet cannibalization is also hurting retail but I think that is a slow long-term threat; the real issue is overbuilt retail with way too many retail chains, not to mention malls/shopping centers/etc. Retail is a tough industry for investors--generally no barrier to industry of any kind, and driven a lot by unpredictable hits, fads and trends (sort of like the consumer technology industry)--but I wonder if the current situation presents an opportunity. source: " Retail bankruptcies march toward post-recession high ," CNBC, March 31 2017 .

Various articles I encountered over the last few months that you may find interesting... (Recommended) " When Bankers Started Playing With Other People's Money " by William D. Cohan (The Atlantic, Feb 28 2017) --  (Except from Why Wall Street Matters by William D. Cohan) : When Wall Street investment banks became public: "On April 10, 1970, nearly a year after first filing its IPO prospectus with the SEC, DLJ pulled it off, raising $12 million from the public and as a result fundamentally altering how Wall Street has functioned ever since. “Going public changed Wall Street permanently and forever,” Richard Jenrette (the J in DLJ) told the Times. “If Wall Street had remained in a private mode, it would have acted like a club and been so vastly undercapitalized that someone would have taken it over long ago. There would have been no alternative but to have let the [commercial] banks take over”—something that the Glass-Steagall law, of course, had made illegal....

December Christmas Shopping Declining? In developed countries, shopping during December for Christmas, which is the largest and most important shopping period for retailers, has been declining. In most countries (except Italy and Japan below*), annual retail spending is higher than it was in the past--at a minimum, rising population and inflation results in higher spending over time--so it doesn't mean people shop less. The Economist posits several possible reasons for the December declines (from The Economist's Daily Chart, Dec 25 2016 ): There are at least three explanations for the recent decline in holiday cheer. First, the growth of e-commerce has made it easier for consumers to shop for seasonal items year-round. Second, the rise of gift cards—which are not recorded as sales until they are redeemed by the recipient—has shifted holiday consumption into January or later. Finally, younger shoppers may be dragging down end-of-year sales at many traditional brick-and-mort...

History of American Retail Stores (select sample) (source: Internet Trends 2016 - Code Conference , Mary Meeker, KPCB. June 1 2016)