Can Turtles Fly?

Given the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump and the lack of a well-articulated platform and ideology that he adheres to, it has become a cottage industry to predict how the US government over the next several years--at least until mid-term elections in 2 years--will behave. I don't like Donald Trump, his policies or the people he surrounds himself with--Steve Bannon, the ex-Goldman Sachs banker/ex-film producer and almost-far-right proponent, and Bill Walton, the former Allied Capital CEO who some of you may recall being profiled by David Einhorn over a decade ago with some employees eventually being convicted of fraud come to mind (it's almost farcical that Trump would put Walton in a role to influence the policies of the SEC and SBA when those two agencies contributed to the conviction of wrongdoing by Walton's firms)--but as I have mentioned in the past, unlike most other countries, the US President has far less power than many imagine. Having said that, since...

Interesting Facts about the US Currency I ran across a good Dallas Federal Reserve publication (" Money " from 2013) that explained the basics of money. It is one of those government propaganda-type publications aimed at the general population but, surprisingly, it does a good job of going over almost all the major concepts related to money including inflation, expansion of the money supply due to multiplier effect of reserve banking, and even highlights the major events (such as Bretton Woods, FDR banning ownership of gold, etc). Anyway, it had some interesting historical facts that very few, including Americans, know about the US currency and I thought I would post it here. I certainly didn't know about them. For instance, I knew about the era when banks issued their currencies but didn't know there were 30,000(!) distinct currencies in USA at one point. This implies that there were maybe 20,000 banks (another 10k could be other entities) and that surprises me...

Here are some articles I read recently that you may find interesting. This time around, very few are investing-related... " Google, Facebook, and Microsoft Are Remaking Themselves Around AI " (Cade Metz for Wired): Overview of how these tech companies are leading the research into AI. " Inside Fitbit’s Quest to Make Fitness Trackers Invisible " (David Pierce for Wired): I was thinking about wearables as a potential investment. In particular, Fitbit (FIT) has sold off since the IPO--it's kind of confusing since it seems like there was a big share dilution along the way--but is this a fad or is it the future? Fitbit certainly has the leadership position and strong brand (so far) and its balance sheet and income statement looks ok too. I probably won't invest since history is too short and it's hard to predict the future but I'm studying it a bit. " Can America’s Companies Survive America’s Most Aggressive Investors? " (Alana Semuels for T...

I was listening to this Manual of Ideas podcast with James Roumell and he briefly mentioned the three  types of edge investors could have and I thought it was worth thinking about. The three of them are: Information edge Analytical edge Behavioural edge There are many different ways of slicing and dicing the idea of investment advantages that are required but these three do a good job IMO. This is a very simple thing but it is always worth thinking and periodically reminding oneself about basic concepts in investing. Information Edge Information edge is when you have knowledge that most others--say the market as a whole--doesn't possess. Some people do it through illegal means but we are talking about fully legal activities here. It sounds like James Roumell believes this may his edge. Those with large budgets may get an edge by sourcing information that is not easily accessible to others, either due to cost or exclusivity (for example, getting very detailed mar...

Arguably the most successful hedge fund of all time is Renaissance Technologies' Medallion fund. I don't know much about hedge funds and don't have visibility into any of them, and furthermore, Renaissance is very secretive, so I'm just going by what others say. Since many people keep saying the same thing, I suspect Renaissance is indeed as good as it is. Bloomberg Markets has a very good article on Renaissance Technologies, " Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other ." Given how the fund is secretive, there isn't much that is known but Katherine Burton, the primary author, does a good job with whatever is available. Even if you are not a quantitative investor, well worth a read for a markets history perspective. Medallion is a quant fund and Renaissance employs numerous, highly educated and highly skilled, mathematicians and scientists. The founder of Medallion, Jim Simons, is a former mathematics professor. Medallion's record is truly remark...

Global Agriculture Some important agricultural graphics I extracted from Syngenta's " Our Industry 2016 " report ( PDF direct link )... (As with most graphics posted on this blog, you can click on the image for a larger one) (Image source: Syngenta, " Our Industry 2016 "; PDF direct link )

Since getting back into investing, here are some articles I found interesting/worthwhile. Since I'm catching up, some are really old so you may have seen them already (if it is stock ideas or macro themes, pay attention to date it was written). Hope you find them useful. I'm also trying to rebuild my blog and website list. Quite a number of blogs I used to read are gone or don't really cover what I find useful. If anyone has blogs that are worth following (especially anything new started in the last 3 or 4 years), let me know (email me or leave a comment at the bottom). (Recommended) " Should You Buy Net-Nets or 'Desert Island' Stocks? " (Geoff Gannon for GuruFocus ): Good to see Geoff Gannon writing articles again. I probably learn more from Gannon than anyone else on the Internet. Lately, I have been reading through his past articles at GuruFocus and there is always a nugget I pick up from each one. The linked article is one that touches on the in...