Monday, December 29, 2008 9 comments ++[ CLICK TO COMMENT ]++

America to disintegrate by 2010... or so says one man

If there were awards for making black swan predictions, I think one gentlemen from Russia has everyone beat when it comes to the political category. In a prediction that rivals the best--or worst?--of science fiction writers, we have a Russian analyst forecasting the breakup of USA. I'm sure you are thinking that you have heard that before, not just once or twice but at least ten times. But, unlike prior "forecasters," this individual is predicting not only a major collapse of USA, but for it to happen by 2010. Yes, make no mistake, Americans only have 2 more years of peace and prosperity. After that, they'll be happy to know that they will be under the influence some distant forces as outlined in the map below:

For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.


Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

Prior apocalyptic predictions have involved the southern states falling to Mexico; Hawaii being lost; and Alaska reverting to Russia or to Canada. So none of that is surprising. But it's news to me that someone thinks that China would have influence over the west coast. The western states have little to do with China and once China figures out how liberal those states are, they may not want any part of it :)

Canadians will be happy to know that, after most prior forecasters predicting Canada to be invaded by USA, the opposite is expected to happen. Canada is somehow expected to have influence over the mid-west states. Europeans need not fret. One might have thought that European influence had been declining for the last 100 years, but not according to this analyst. Europe somehow manages to get the north-eastern states to join the EU (it should be noted that some on this side of the world are forecasting the EU to fall apart so it will come down a race I guess.) I personally have always considered the north-eastern states to be more attractive to Canada (although the conservatives in Western Canada would disagree ;) ) so maybe we can swap the mid-west for the north-east. I hear Europe is running out of room so I'm sure Europeans will find the less densely populated states of Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and the like more attractive. Home state of Warren Buffett should be some sort of trophy, no?

So, if you are an American, I think it's about time to start stocking up on guns, food, and gold. I guess I might have to hold off on the bearish gold idea ;)

9 Response to America to disintegrate by 2010... or so says one man

December 29, 2008 at 4:31 PM

Well, I guess if the EU falls apart the separate states could still claim part of the US territory alloted to the Union.

Just in case, on behalf of her Majesty the Queen I hereby claim the historical territory of New Holland, in effect the present day states of New York and New Jersey.

December 29, 2008 at 6:05 PM

ContrarianDutch, I think you have (conveniently ;) ) skipped over the history where New Amsterdam became New York. Methinks the British are going to dispute your claim on New York and surrounding areas. I personally wouldn't mind a battle within the EU over the ownership of those states. Maybe Canada can take over those regions, temporarily of course, while you guys sort it out ;)

December 29, 2008 at 7:43 PM

On behalf of Canada, I claim Alaska!
Russia can have Sarah Palin in exchange.

December 29, 2008 at 9:50 PM

My favorite part is imagining all the people in Tennessee wearing berets and having a lively argument about the forthcoming soccer match against the South Carolina Serviettes while deciding to have their summer vacation in Andalucia, or just at the tractor-pull like usual.

December 30, 2008 at 5:06 PM

The British lost all claims when they surrendered to the US revolutionaries of course.

The British are bankrupt in any case. We can pay them GBP 1 trillion, about 1-2 euros in 2010, to relinquish any claims they might have.

Canada can have the territory between New Holland and it's own current border.

December 31, 2008 at 4:04 AM

might we see a "Red Dawn" scenario occur?

Also, as a Kentuckian, I would rather die than live in a post USA nation that would consist of states like NY, Mass, Conn, the District of Columbia and ME... Though, NH and VA would be OK. ;-P

January 1, 2009 at 11:55 PM

Captain Shallot & Jeff,

I think you guys have forgotten, um, how shall I put it kindly, well, the soothsayer has predicted with absolute certainty, that your lives will be controlled by foreign interests. You need to start thinking about satisfying your new overlords over in Europe (or once I am done with my proposed swap, the newly powerful Canadians.)

And... before you think of starting another revolution, do keep in mind what happened the last time you fought Canada in 1812. Burning down Washington would seem like a pyromanic experiment. Even the success of the original revolution seems slim. I think your chances of winning are quite slim indeed, this time around. Your current American leadership does not seem to resemble the traits possessed by any of Washington, Jefferson, Adam, Franklin, or even that of Thomas Paine. Now, would you rather worship your new overlords or go to battle with the leadership of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and then Obama, Biden, and Gates? I thought so ;)

January 1, 2009 at 11:59 PM

ContrarianDutch: "The British are bankrupt in any case. We can pay them GBP 1 trillion, about 1-2 euros in 2010, to relinquish any claims they might have."

ContrarianDutch, are you saying that the British pound is the short of the century? I never quite considered it but maybe I should add it to my contrarian list. Perhaps it will yield better results than Ambac* ;)

(* yeah I realize how painful Ambac is but investors need to have a sense of humour)

January 2, 2009 at 5:52 AM


You haven't noticed the GB Krona diving with no end in sight?

Fundamentally, The British have the biggest foreign debt relative to GDP of any developed country, heavy economic dependence on a hugely oversized (and now rapidly shrinking) financial sector and a massive trade deficit.

So, if you are inclined to short currencies the GBP might be just the ticket.

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