Can Turtles Fly?

Long-time blog readers, if there are any ;) , probably know that one of my favourite investors is Jim Rogers. I first came to understand the commodity supercycle and the global trade boom and ascent of China from Jim Rogers (and also Marc Faber). Both of them are contrarians and way out of the mainstream so not many will agree with them, but if you are macro-oriented like I am, they can be insightful. I have been catching up on investing after being absent for several years so I'm going through some older stuff. I came across the following two excellent interviews with Jim Rogers. These cover more about Rogers' life and are interesting to hear. LondonReal's Interview: " Jim Rogers - Follow the Money $$$ " (published to YouTube June 1, 2014) Jesus Sierra's Jim Rogers Interview: " Jim ROGERS - Dollar and commodities for 2017, interest rates, inflation and why books. " (published to YouTube January 11, 2017) Some though...

Future of the World is Already Written... Demographics is one of these things that is hard to change and once set in motion, can last for a lifetime... (source: " Global Demographic Trends Shape Policy Environment ," Mark A. Wynne, Economic Letter, Dallas Federal Reserve, July 2016, Vol 11, No 7; main page link )

Share Buybacks via Debt Based on the Fitch data referenced by Bloomberg, companies have been buying back shares over the last 3 years with more money than the free cash flow they earn (i.e. they had to issue debt to buyback shares). Note that this refers to the market as a whole; at any given time, some companies will be leveraging up or altering their capital structure towards more debt, but that's ok if only a few companies do it. It's a different matter when the market as a whole does it. Buying back shares by using debt (i.e. more than free cash flow allows) is always a dicey proposition depending on how leveraged the company is. The last time companies used debt to buyback shares was in 2007 and things didn't turn out well. You can value-destructive actions like companies--many of the same ones using debt to buy back shares earlier--actually issuing shares at really low prices (because they fell so badly in the bear market of 2008) to pay back debt. Having...

Since I started seriously investing after a few years of absence, here is how my portfolio performed in 2016. I didn't make any long-term investments and didn't have any from before so it is sort of an unusual portfolio. I used to use computer software (Microsoft Money and Quicken) but am doing things by hand now. I redid everything by hand and am still tweaking the layout, and working backwards on prior years. I was mostly in cash the last few years so likely underperformed the market (hope to post historical figures in the future). The figures below may be slightly different from final actual numbers. I have historically measured myself against 3 indexes: S&P 500 Total Return index, S&P TSX Composite Total Return index, and Dow Jones Wilshire Global Total Return index. My goal is actually to earn around 12% per year but I'm not good enough to be an absolute return investor so my current goal is to beat the indexes for now. The popular S&P 500 represents ...

Real Oil Prices If you are looking at long-term trends with commodity prices, one should always look at the real prices (i.e. adjusted for inflation). Real commodity prices have actually trended down over the last few hundread years (only exception is something like gold, which is a currency and not really like other commodities). Over a medium time period of, say, 20-30 years, they have tended to cycle around an average--these cycles are massive and you can make a lot of money (or lose a lot) if you can capitalize on them. I turned bearish on commodities around 2007 because the prices were way above long-term real averages. Given the big sell-off in commodities over the last few years (decline in 2014 and 2015 with rally in 2016), the question is whether they are attractive now. Each commodity is slightly different but they trend together for the most part. Crude oil has been the most important commodity in the last 50 or so years so it's worth looking at that. The char...

Interest Rates & Inflation (source: Trading Economics , downloaded Jan 7, 2017 )

If you were strictly investing in your local country's stock market, would you be missing out on anything? Ever wonder whether one should look at foreign markets? Well, assuming that your country's local stock market valuation isn't extremely high--if the whole market is high and expected to remain high, one has reason to look overseas (or to different asset classes)--and ignoring macro factors--you have reason to invest overseas if you have an opinion on future currency exchange rates, political risk, global economic secular themes, etc--there is really one big reason one should consider foreign markets. The single biggest reason (except for macro and overvaluation reasons) to consider foreign markets has to do with the composition of your local market . For most countries, certain industries or sectors may constitute a big chunk of the market. If your circle of competence is not in those dominant sectors, you may have limited choices and have a hard time. For...

2016 You Say? Last time I did a recap, which is sort of when I stopped blogging and seriously investing, was in 2011. Seems like a long time ago. Now for something different from the usual investing stuff... I like lists and the following lists capture 2016's top articles, book suggestions, photos, and various miscellaneous items. I only link to freely accessible sources but some items may provide free access a few times per month. Nowadays it seems that everyone is putting out lists. There are enough to last the next year ;) (* anything marked with stars are recommended and worth checking out * ) * Google Year in Search 2016  (click for search trends) * Business & Investing   * 20 Best Reads of 2016   * Financial Post (Canada) * The Economist’s editors pick the ten covers that define 2016   * The Economist The Year in Technology: 2016 in Charts Bloomberg Economist's 2016 in charts Th...

Happy New Year! Here's to a Joyful Healthy and Prosperous 2017 for you & your family!