Mutlimedia Rundown

Here are some multimedia clips consisting mostly of interviews over the last few months. A lot of it is not new and has made the round in media and blogs but I'm repeating them here in case someone missed it.



  • Donald Coxe (Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava): For those not familiar, Donald Coxe is a commodity superbull who had been bullish on commodities for many years. He shares his views on the current situation. I don't agree with all his views, but it's interesting to hear his take on agriculturals. If I were to bet on commodities, I would go for the soft commodities (agriculturals.) Donald Coxe, Jim Rogers, and Marc Faber are all bullish on them so that's a good sign. This seems a safer bet than industrial commodities or oil&gas, most of which are already up almost 200% to 500% within 10 years.

  • Jim Grant (Financial Times): There are no libertarians in a crisis... except for Jim Grant that is. (original mention: The Big Picture)

  • Paul Volker (Charlie Rose on PBS): Thinks the situation is bad. (original mention: Calculated Risk)

  • Warren Buffett (Charlie Rose on PBS): Very good interview, and, given his age, we may be seeing one of Buffett's last.

  • Jim Rogers retro (Charlie Rose on PBS): If you want to catch an old-school interview with Jim Rogers, you can't beat this. We are talking about 1995. Jim Rogers was as bullish on China back then as now. Remember he was making this call before anyone even thought China would amount to anything. People always remember Jim Rogers was his commodity call but what will cement his position as one of the top macro investors is his China call. Assuming China doesn't completely fall apart, it will likely crush returns on all other investments. Commodities may boom and then collapse but countries can literally grow for centuries.

  • Riverside conversations with Jim Rogers and Marc Faber (VPRO/Amago): If anyone wants to know when I started respecting Marc Faber (and Jim Rogers to some extent,) it was around the period in early/mid 2000's. I considered the Riverside Conversation series as some of the best discussions I had ever encountered as a newbie investor. I don't know if all the videos work (some are in Realvideo which I didn't test but the last one in Windows media seems ok) and they are very poor quality but if anyone has time to kill, check these out. The views may be dated so don't assume everything that is discussed holds but if you want to know why some people like me like the seemingly 'eccentric and evil' ;) Marc Faber or the 'never short of polemics' Jim Rogers, you may find these videos insightful. (original mention: Financial Sense)

  • George Soros (Bill Moyers on PBS): Haven't watched this yet but I'm coming around to some of his thinking. His notion of reflexity is starting to make a lot of sense to me. His explanation of how reflexity may be playing a role with oil seems plausible. (The New York Review of Books touches on this issue when reviewing his latest book.) The key point he seems to be making is that, contrary to the popular conventional view (mostly from the Chicago economic school,) markets do not necessarily towards equilibrium. Furthermore, an important point he makes is that the markets themselves have the power to affect the fundamentals (this is contrary to the conventional view that fundamentals such as supply and demand primarly drive the markets and not the other way around.) (original mention: The Big Picture)

  • The Spiral (Going Private): Now for some humour... Hilter and his financial meltdown. Check out all the videos on the site. Anything that injects MBIA into the situation deserves some kudos. If I'm not mistaken, the video is from the feature film Downfall, aka Dr Untergang (I haven't seen it but it's on my list.) (original mention: The Big Picture)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular Posts

Thoughts on the stock market - March 2020

Image
Right now, DJIA has a P/E of 16.8 and forwand P/E of 15.1, whereas S&P 500 is at 20.1 with forward P/E of 15.8. Source: WSJ market Data If you ignore interest rates and inflation expectations--both of these influence valuations but depends on your macro call-- the market is not cheap. Long-term P/E is around 15. Trailing P/E is around 20% (Dow) to 40% (S&P500) higher than average. Forward P/E is in line with long term average but that assumes a strong V recovery. Consensus forecast is for profits to drop 1.2% in 2020. In 2008, it dropped 25.4% so current forecast is a very mild recession. Covid-19 coronavirus is not going to last more than a few months but these forecasts are still too rosy in my opinion. So I wouldn't rely on forward P/E. The richly valued (mostly tech or high quality) have not fallen much but the distressed ones have. So if you want to outperform in the long run, I think one’s choice right now is to: • Wait for market to fall another, say
✖ READ MORE >>>

Warren Buffett's Evolution and his Three Investment Styles

Image
A Young Warren Buffett In a comment to one of my posts , Mark Carter, who incidentally appears to have a  good blog worth checking out , asked: "Buffett Prime is 1970's to early 1990's" Could you elaborate? I have vaguely indicated how I view Warren Buffett in the past, but I thought I would detail my view of his investing behaviour. This is more of an opinion piece and many others would disagree with me (if you do, I'm curious to hear your thoughts). I don't follow Warren Buffett as closely as many value investors so I may get some facts wrong. My view is that Warren Buffett went through three different phases, with each consisting of different investment techniques. The overall investment theory remained the same—what people call value investing—but his execution, tactics, and strategy differs across the three phases. Some people may break up his career into additional periods but my feeling is that the three I will describe essentially capt
✖ READ MORE >>>

Hugh Hendry discussion at the Alternative Investment Conference

Thanks to Value Investing World for bringing this Hugh Hendry interview to my attention. I may not agree with all the things—short-term orientation of hedge funds is actually worse IMO; the sharp pencil effect doesn't always work—but Hendry is a true contrarian and worth listening. Like Marc Faber or Jim Rogers, you also can't take everything Hugh Hendry says seriously. I had always felt Hugh Hendry was firmly in the deflation camp but I get the feeling that he is now opening up to high-inflation possibilities. Otherwise, his stance appears to be similar to past opinions.
✖ READ MORE >>>