Saturday, August 11, 2007 6 comments ++[ CLICK TO COMMENT ]++

Good website of announced M&A

I found a good website listing all the announced M&A from a posting by the user, MergerArb, on the WSJ blog. Obviously one needs to double-check the numbers that are posted and dig into the details to see the risk but it's a good site. You can find the M&A merger arbitrage site here.

According to the numbers from that site, the top 10 potential profits as of today would be one of the following (note: these are not annualized profits):

RDN....78.4%
LEND...69.7%
TONE...44.8%
TRB....28.3%
LEV....27.1%
OATS...26.2%
SLM....24.5%
CMLS...21.6%
PHH....21.4%
XMSR...20.1%

Note that the list doesn't seem to include announced foreign deals (such as the BCE or ABN-Amro deal) and the risk in these are very high. The risk in the BCE and ABM-Amro deal are likely low IMO but the ones above are very high (I can see many of them not going through).

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6 Response to Good website of announced M&A

Anonymous
August 12, 2007 at 1:37 AM

That site's a joke. Fails to offer anything that isn't already publicly available. No research. No analysis.

Try this for M&A information that you can actually use: maresearch.com

August 12, 2007 at 8:30 PM

Thanks for the info. I don't know anything about the services you provide but if anyone is interested, I hope they check out your site.

Anonymous
August 13, 2007 at 10:31 PM

That maresearch.com website doesn't offer any timely information at all for free, so I don't know what the other poster is complaining about. Unless the owner of that site has access to insider information, he is just regurgitating publicly available information, and charging a lot of money to read it. This guy must be associated with the site somehow, and feels the need to go around and bash his competitors.

August 14, 2007 at 1:35 PM

Yeah that site isn't free but I have no problem with people offering paid services. I haven't seen any reports from that site but if he/she digs into the deals and gives solid info, it may be worth it to those that can afford it.

The free site I linked in my site has misleading info. It seems to be correct at time of publication but not in real-time. For example, a lot of the deals with high potential return percentages are stock swap deals and the stocks of the buyer have fallen a lot.

Anonymous
February 6, 2008 at 9:03 PM

If you are someone looking for merger data, you should also check out www.madmergers.com. Instead of trading the high risk (high return) mergers, I prefer to trade the lower risk spreads. I used to trade the higher risk spreads and instead of trading them back and forth (scalping), I found myself holding them thinking that anyday this merger will go through. Some did go through but took a lot longer than planned and some blew up leaving me with a large loss. If you have a loss of 33%, you need to gain 50% after that to get your portfolio back to even. In this environment, I would recommend staying away from the higher risk mergers and focus your attention on the lower risk ones. If you are trading cash mergers, make sure to trade the ones that are not borrowing money and using cash from their balance sheet. The stock mergers are my favorite to trade but takes more advanced software to trade them easily.

Anonymous
February 10, 2008 at 3:02 PM

I also like www.madmergers.com! I love the way it's set up, and it makes finding data really easy!

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