Michael Lewis has a book out on FTX scandal, the cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed. The following Bloomberg Masters in Business podcast is pretty good and goes over many topics.
Right now, DJIA has a P/E of 16.8 and forwand P/E of 15.1, whereas S&P 500 is at 20.1 with forward P/E of 15.8. Source: WSJ market Data If you ignore interest rates and inflation expectations--both of these influence valuations but depends on your macro call-- the market is not cheap. Long-term P/E is around 15. Trailing P/E is around 20% (Dow) to 40% (S&P500) higher than average. Forward P/E is in line with long term average but that assumes a strong V recovery. Consensus forecast is for profits to drop 1.2% in 2020. In 2008, it dropped 25.4% so current forecast is a very mild recession. Covid-19 coronavirus is not going to last more than a few months but these forecasts are still too rosy in my opinion. So I wouldn't rely on forward P/E. The richly valued (mostly tech or high quality) have not fallen much but the distressed ones have. So if you want to outperform in the long run, I think one’s choice right now is to: • Wait for market to fall another, say
A Young Warren Buffett In a comment to one of my posts , Mark Carter, who incidentally appears to have a good blog worth checking out , asked: "Buffett Prime is 1970's to early 1990's" Could you elaborate? I have vaguely indicated how I view Warren Buffett in the past, but I thought I would detail my view of his investing behaviour. This is more of an opinion piece and many others would disagree with me (if you do, I'm curious to hear your thoughts). I don't follow Warren Buffett as closely as many value investors so I may get some facts wrong. My view is that Warren Buffett went through three different phases, with each consisting of different investment techniques. The overall investment theory remained the same—what people call value investing—but his execution, tactics, and strategy differs across the three phases. Some people may break up his career into additional periods but my feeling is that the three I will describe essentially capt
Found the following song lyrics set to Bob Dylan's The times they are a-changin' . I don't agree with the full lyrics but it's well done so I'm reproducing it here. If you are not familiar with the original song by Bob Dylan, check out the song on YouTube . (For those not familiar, Bob Dylan is an American rock & roll musician and is considered to be one of the most influential of all time. His most famous song is Like a rolling stone ( youtube link here ).) Posted by williambanzai7 in the comments on the NYT DealBook blog for the entry Henry Paulson's Frakenstein . I assume he/she is also the author of the modified lyrics. Reproduced without permission. “ The Markets They Are A-Changin’ ” (to the melody by Bob Dylan; posted by williambanzai7) Come gather round ‘bankers’ Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You’ll be told to go home If your job to you Is worth savin’ Then you better start swimmin’ Or you
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