Friday, October 19, 2018 6 comments ++[ CLICK TO COMMENT ]++

Purchase: Nevsun (NSU)

I took a position in Nevsun (TSX: NSU) which is being bought out by Zijin Mining, which is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world. zijin is a chinese company that trades in Hong kong and there should be no risk with financing and the like. I owned Nevsun about 10 years ago and this buyout would bring closure to one of my earliest stocks.

Since the spread is so small, this deal is not worth it for you if your holdings are in a different currency and you don't hedge; or have a US$-denominated account. C$ currency fluctuations can wipe out any gains.

NSU also trades in USA but company is Canadian and all my dealings are in C$ and on TSX.

Purchase price (TSX: NSU): $5.72

Return Expectation

Takeover price: $6
Purchase price: $5.72

Probability of success (my estimate): 99%
Return on success: 5%
Probability of failure (my estimate): 1%
Return on failure (my estimate): -56% (assume it drops to $2.50, the multi-year low from early 2018 (it has traded between $3 and $4 over the last few years) (however, the price before another hostile offer (from Lundin mining) was $3.82 and Lundin hostile offer was for $4.75)
  
Expected Return: 4.3%


Buffett's Four Key Questions

(1) How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur? 

No buyout condition and Zijin Mining is listed in Hong Kong and is a large company so low financing risk. Unlikely to be blocked by China or Canada (asset is in Africa so Canada should not have any concern and Canada does not generally block mining takeovers--it will hurt the mining industry and future foreign investments).
(2) How long will your money be tied up?
 Companies expect deal to close by end of 2018


(3) What chance is there that something still better will transpire - a competing takeover bid, for example? 
None -- already went through prior hostile offer from Lundin at a lower price of $4.75.
(4) What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti-trust action, financing glitches, etc.? 
Although not ideal, wouldn't mind owning business if deal fails. Gold exposure is likely attractive given rising trade wars and geopolitical risk (from a fairly peaceful era).
Owned Nevsun about 10 years ago so somewhat familiar with it.  midstage junior operating in very risky African country.



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6 Response to Purchase: Nevsun (NSU)

October 21, 2018 at 12:42 PM

The company's activities are subject to some risks due to the external influences. The main goal is worth accepting them in achieving the result.

December 11, 2018 at 4:29 PM

Thank you for your advice about Nevsun (TSX: NSU). I also wanted to buy it. But now I should reconsider all pros and cons.

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