Gary Shilling Bloomberg interview from April 13th of 2010
One of the readers mentioned Gary Shilling and I was wondering what his stance is these days. Well, I ran across this Bloomberg video interview conducted a little less than a month ago (if link doesn't work, go here and click on video at the top.) Gary maintains his past stance (which likely means he hasn't done too well in the last year) and there isn't anything new in the video but it's still good to hear his contrarian stance on several issues.
One thing did stand out in the interview for me: Gary is one of the few suggesting that the renminbi could go down. Gary throws in a big caveat—that being that all capital controls are removed, which is highly unlikely—but it's still interesting to see anyone remark that the renminbi could actually go down. Gary Shilling's view is that Chinese citizens will send capital abroad, hence pressuring the renminbi; whereas my view is that renminbi may decline because the Chinese government ends up devaluing it.
As one of the few true deflationists, Shilling is bullish on long-term US government bonds. Maintaining his past comments, he thinks the super-long-term (30 year) bond yields could fall to 3%. Right now the yield is 4.27%. I never considered this before but, after hearing Shilling suggest it, I am investigating the 30 year zero-coupon US treasury bond (aka STRIP.)
One thing did stand out in the interview for me: Gary is one of the few suggesting that the renminbi could go down. Gary throws in a big caveat—that being that all capital controls are removed, which is highly unlikely—but it's still interesting to see anyone remark that the renminbi could actually go down. Gary Shilling's view is that Chinese citizens will send capital abroad, hence pressuring the renminbi; whereas my view is that renminbi may decline because the Chinese government ends up devaluing it.
As one of the few true deflationists, Shilling is bullish on long-term US government bonds. Maintaining his past comments, he thinks the super-long-term (30 year) bond yields could fall to 3%. Right now the yield is 4.27%. I never considered this before but, after hearing Shilling suggest it, I am investigating the 30 year zero-coupon US treasury bond (aka STRIP.)
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