Tuesday, November 27, 2007 0 comments ++[ CLICK TO COMMENT ]++

Stock Market Returns for the World

Birinyi Associate's TickerSense posted the chart below showing stock market returns throughout the world (thanks to SeekingAlpha for the original reference):

(source: TickerSense, Birinyi Associates)

If you visit their site, you'll get a table showing the returns for individual countries. The top 5, in order, are China (135.18%), Ukraine (121.20%), Bangladesh (90.83%; who says poor countries suffering a crisis don't do well? ;) ), Romania (76.15%), and Slovenia (74.59%).

The bottom 5 are Ireland (-29.89%), Venezuela (-28.04%), Estonia (-14.41%), Japan (-12.14%), and Ecuador (-9.79%).

You can tell from the map that developed countries (USA, most of Europe, Japan) are posting negative returns, while the dark green areas with hig returns are high growth emerging markets. The middle green varies but you can easily tell that commodity countries are dominant.

What this map says--to me--is that the developed countries are slowing (none have entered a recession or posted less than 2% growth rate (except Japan, but Japan is generally low)) but their stock markets are looking forward and seeing bad things. The real question that is on many people's minds is whether the emerging markets will decouple. Interestingly China seems to have entered a correction, with their stock market down around 20% (20% isn't large for their highly speculative market).

My expectation is that things are not going to get any rosier than what's on the map right now. I suspect you will see more reds and pinks in about an year's time...


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