tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post8645591957595598313..comments2024-03-29T01:35:09.550-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: City of Los Angeles Sues Bond Insuers and Investment BanksSivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-52687916807157956762008-07-24T16:37:00.000-04:002008-07-24T16:37:00.000-04:00I actually agree with everything you are said (alt...I actually agree with everything you are said (although your diss of Bill Miller with "main man" doesn't sit well with me ;) .)<BR/><BR/>Most value investors ignore macro for the most part. However, I personally DO consider the macro stuff (that's one reason I don't consider myself a value investor.)<BR/><BR/>But the thing is... assets may be cheap even after adjusting for most bearish scenarios. This is especially true for contrarian stocks which are generally beaten up badly and hence have low price (now whether the price is low enough is another story but that's what we try to figure out.)Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-16621461928104825432008-07-24T16:15:00.000-04:002008-07-24T16:15:00.000-04:00When you see a story like this, as an investor, yo...When you see a story like this, as an investor, you should look beyond the obvious lawyer-out-to-get-everyone story or the wiggle-out-of-commitmemt angle. <BR/><BR/>There is a broader angle at play: The mood of the society is changing from positive to negative, from optimistic to austerity. What does this imply in terms the investor perception of value, or to use a favorite term of yours, "intrinic" value? I am not just talking about bond insurers. I am talking about all classes of investments. Also, what does the negative mood imply in terms of people's willingness to borrow and lend? The trust factor? Remember, credit expansion depends critically on trust.<BR/><BR/>When you are willing to see the big picture, or at least take away your blinders and perform a critical analysis of not just what you perceive, but what others may perceive, THEN you can take a Whitmanesque, Dremanesque, or Your-Main-Man-esque approach to security anaylsis.<BR/><BR/>This is a sounder way to go than the ludicrous approach of assessing "value" without looking at the big marcoeconomic picture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com