tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post7059316657025512763..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Purchase: Puget Energy (PSD) - Merger ArbitrageSivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-63983063254769384882008-10-27T17:24:00.000-04:002008-10-27T17:24:00.000-04:00Thanks Armen. You caught a mistake. I fixed it and...Thanks Armen. You caught a mistake. I fixed it and the estimated return improves slightly.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-3386749499210687042008-10-27T13:19:00.000-04:002008-10-27T13:19:00.000-04:00In your expected return formula, why are you facto...In your expected return formula, why are you factoring in the downside to be ten times larger/more likely than the upside when the percentage of likelihood is already accounted for?<BR/><BR/>Shouldn't it be 0.1*0.074 instead of 0.1*0.74?Armenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15057866258638773007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-9437156775469027972008-10-20T21:40:00.000-04:002008-10-20T21:40:00.000-04:00BombayAdvisors: "The market is likely implying a p...BombayAdvisors: "The market is likely implying a probability of less than 90%."<BR/><BR/>Yes, the market is implying a high probability of failure. But my risk arbitrage strategy involves going against the market. So the probability is what *I* think it is. Who knows how correct it is but that's my stance. <BR/><BR/>If I used the market probability, then I would not be doing anything advantageous for me. If the market thinks the probability of success if high then the returns are going to be small (often less than 5%, and maybe 3% after commissions/taxes/etc). That case is not worth it to me at all. But if you were running a hedge fund or a specialist mutual fund, I can see someone finding that scenario attractive due to leverage. If you didn't use leverage, like me, then the high probability cases are not worth it.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-2963227475688522752008-10-20T10:16:00.000-04:002008-10-20T10:16:00.000-04:00The market is likely implying a probability of les...The market is likely implying a probability of less than 90%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-48893291841633196932008-10-16T12:53:00.000-04:002008-10-16T12:53:00.000-04:00I entered into a position in the low 23's about a ...I entered into a position in the low 23's about a month ago but then sold at a tiny profit because I needed the capital for another opportunity.<BR/><BR/>Now that its down to the 22's with limited downside even if the deal fails, your probabilty of success versus failure is probably true.<BR/><BR/>All approvals have been acquired, including the antitrust and now all that remains is a reply brief to be submitted by Oct 23.<BR/><BR/>I believe this to be a very nice short term play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-18217400210079886142008-10-08T12:21:00.000-04:002008-10-08T12:21:00.000-04:00Good point.. a will be taking the plunge soon.Good point.. a will be taking the plunge soon.vladohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17573273060469187424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-427068856514551182008-10-08T10:31:00.000-04:002008-10-08T10:31:00.000-04:00Vlado, I have kept a close eye on BCE and even tho...Vlado, I have kept a close eye on BCE and even thought about averaging into that. Financial risk is real but someone sitting on the sidelines should consider BCE. <BR/><BR/>As for me, I need to diversify and adding to BCE is a bit risky. I don't mind holding BCE if the deal fails but I don't want a huge chunk of my portfolio tied up in that. The same thing with PSD: if it fails, I wouldn't mind owning it as a last resort but don't want most of my capital tied up in a slow-growth, albeit safe, utility.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-71674944024753234192008-10-08T09:04:00.000-04:002008-10-08T09:04:00.000-04:00An M&A (www.maresearch.com) service has a comp...An M&A (www.maresearch.com) service has a complete free report on the PSD deal. <BR/><BR/>Link:<BR/><BR/>http://maresearch.com/psd.htm<BR/><BR/>Good luck!<BR/><BR/>Steve.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-40131956577721795982008-10-07T20:14:00.000-04:002008-10-07T20:14:00.000-04:00Have you noticed BCE's recent closing price of $30...Have you noticed BCE's recent closing price of $30/share? 40% upside now.vladohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17573273060469187424noreply@blogger.com