tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post5965427250177912110..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: The Biggest Unfolding Story Right Now: ChinaSivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-58970137629289943872008-11-10T14:15:00.000-05:002008-11-10T14:15:00.000-05:00Here is an example of a call by some ex-securities...<A HREF="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/China-ex-regulator-urges-government/story.aspx?guid=%7B86736A5E%2D2CE5%2D40E2%2D880E%2DD10F7222BBBD%7D" REL="nofollow">Here is an example of a call by some ex-securities regulator</A> to prop up the stock market. I don't think the government cares about the stock market over there but it still shows the possiblity of the government swooping in and starting to buy shares if they wanted to.<BR/><BR/>Let's not forget that one of the few times that market intervention has worked was when the Hong Kong government started buying stocks back in the 90's. Governments rarely have much influence on the stock market but it does happen.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-25313544318774522652008-11-10T13:13:00.000-05:002008-11-10T13:13:00.000-05:00I agree! I've strongly believed that too many peo...I agree! I've strongly believed that too many people were talking about and investing in China. Being a contrarian, I looked at other countries that weren't being talked about near as much. I was never on the China bandwagon. <BR/><BR/>I see all the crap we buy from them, and yes they make some good stuff, but it seems like most of the stuff we really don't need comes from them. We've been spending money irresponsibly and unsustainably on stuff we don't need and can't afford. <BR/><BR/>Also, if they start to pay their workers too well and try to raise the standard of living for their manufacturing base, I think a lot of factories could always move to another country that would be cheaper - it happened to us. It seems manufacturing goes to the cheapest country and there is no reason why it couldn't leave China in the future if they got too expensive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-56235883980937823042008-11-10T10:11:00.000-05:002008-11-10T10:11:00.000-05:00What are you shorting? The red chips on the Hong K...What are you shorting? The red chips on the Hong Kong market? <BR/><BR/>Depending on what you are shorting, it looks like a risky bet because their markets are manipulated by the government. For instance, there is nothing to stop them from buying shares in the open market if they wanted to put a floor.<BR/><BR/>Furthermore, there is huge currency risk in shorting. The Renimbi is thought to be undervalued and, although I don't expect them to do this now (it will kill their manufacturing even more,) they may let it rise.<BR/><BR/>Overall, I don't like the 'China short' strategy. Seems too risky even if the macro picture is deteriorating...Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-39437686990558820902008-11-09T23:57:00.000-05:002008-11-09T23:57:00.000-05:00I am short China, and this stimulus package is kic...I am short China, and this stimulus package is kicking me in the balls. China up 5% as I write, but they are going lower due to corruption and a growing disenfranchised population that has the concept of revolution ingrained in their culture. So few benefited off the backs of so many. Imagine the heartache of money lost in the promise of the stock market, then housing, money borrowed and money earned from near slave labor in Orwellian factories. <BR/><BR/>China can only debase its currency to stimulate exports, but consumption in the West is falling too fast due to domestic issues. They have excess capital investment so what are more paved roads going to do? In the end the sun rose in the West for China and it will now set with the West.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com