tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post562845658110587312..comments2024-03-29T01:35:09.550-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Gold closes in on $1000...Fifth time lucky?Sivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-11222663999952007212009-09-07T20:56:23.000-04:002009-09-07T20:56:23.000-04:00I never read it, but I did read of it although I c...I never read it, but I did read of it although I can't remember where. It might have been mentioned by a thoughtful goldbug to make the reader aware of the opposite side of the infaltion/deflation debate.Daniel M. Ryannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-38619927271867552702009-09-07T16:51:18.000-04:002009-09-07T16:51:18.000-04:00I think you touch on an important issue for contra...I think you touch on an important issue for contrarians so I hope you don't mind me answering this question in a stand-alone post...Sivaramnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-7640016921335161392009-09-07T16:45:35.000-04:002009-09-07T16:45:35.000-04:00I didn't realize Shilling wrote such a book. I...I didn't realize Shilling wrote such a book. Interesting. I knew he was right with bullish call on long bonds but didn't realize that he timing was also quite good...Sivaramnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-48233540164100958452009-09-07T14:13:41.000-04:002009-09-07T14:13:41.000-04:00Why not short Gold as a contrarian, it is hard to ...Why not short Gold as a contrarian, it is hard to find an opposing view to it hitting $1000.<br /><br />Why not short it with a stop at 1005 using a minute part of your portfolio because if it doesnt break $1000 the exit will not be big enough and we could see it at below $600<br /><br />This might sound like a crackpot theory to some but it is contrarian.Guestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-91704787286097180852009-09-05T01:47:56.000-04:002009-09-05T01:47:56.000-04:00I think your bubble-sniffing apparatus has zeroed ...I think your bubble-sniffing apparatus has zeroed in on something. Gold is one of the few asset classes that hasn't had a bubble in a generation, and (as I've said before) inflation is beginning to look like an acceptable price to pay to avoid financial collapse.<br /><br />I'm not trying to convert you to the inflationist viewpoint. In fact, it'll be a good time to be deflation-oriented once inflation becomes a serious problem. Deflationists were formally wrong in 1981, but at least one of their calls (long T-bonds) was spectacularly right. Inflationists (reflationists) who didn't take Volcker seriously, in addition to being wrong themselves, wer portfolio-killers.<br /><br />True fact: there was a 1981 book entitled <em>Is Inflation Ending: Are Your Ready</em>? One of its co-authors was A. Gary Shilling. Daniel M. Ryannoreply@blogger.com