tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post5537430966570966106..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Are swaps the future for hedge fund value managers using concentrated portfolios?Sivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-35451465658115768122008-01-26T13:37:00.000-05:002008-01-26T13:37:00.000-05:00glanced over this--"Representatives of Ambac and M...glanced over this--<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>"Representatives of Ambac and MBIA met in Washington on Thursday with staff members of Dodd's Senate Banking Committee and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee, said an association representative.cakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08156778168786135341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-40407231140373562552008-01-26T13:35:00.000-05:002008-01-26T13:35:00.000-05:00Fedsand hereKanjorski<A HREF="http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7257086" REL="nofollow">Feds</A><BR/><BR/>and here<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.timesleader.com/news/20080126_26-KANJO_3a_ART.html" REL="nofollow">Kanjorski</A>cakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08156778168786135341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-81383121874836730682008-01-26T13:18:00.000-05:002008-01-26T13:18:00.000-05:00Ironically, here's a Fortune article calling Ross ...Ironically, here's a Fortune article calling Ross a genius!<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2004/11/29/8192714/index.htm" REL="nofollow">RossFortune</A>cakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08156778168786135341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-3201053215164102612008-01-25T23:15:00.000-05:002008-01-25T23:15:00.000-05:00I don't know if Wilbur Ross is going to invest in ...I don't know if Wilbur Ross is going to invest in any of the monolines or what shareholders will get out it; but some writers are asking <A HREF="http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/25/news/newsmakers/boyd_ross.fortune/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote" REL="nofollow"> if he is crazy</A>...<BR/><BR/>Funnily, <A HREF="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_51/b3863001_mz001.htm" REL="nofollow"> some were asking the same thing about him in 2003</A> regarding other industries...Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-78841714678116731262008-01-25T17:23:00.000-05:002008-01-25T17:23:00.000-05:00It is refreshing to find a blog that is interested...It is refreshing to find a blog that is interested in the truth rather than storytelling. Whether or not you lose money on ABK, your best reward is already from the learning experience. Welcome to the lonely world of contrarian investing - its not for everyone. Your ABK position will do fine - ABK will be around in one form or another. Focus on what is important, ignore the chatter, and hold on until the dust settles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-662194211435851052008-01-25T15:09:00.000-05:002008-01-25T15:09:00.000-05:00Usually I don't care about all the news that float...Usually I don't care about all the news that floats around but the problem is that it is impacting the stock price precisely when Ambac needs capital. If Ambac can raise $1 to $2 billion (my original expectation several months ago was for them to raise $2 billion) then it'll be down to the economic fundamentals.<BR/><BR/>Egan Jones has been bearish for many years on the monolines. He is in the Ackman camp of $7b-$10 billion in losses for Ambac. Ackman and Egan Jones know the situation so I would put weight to their thoughts. I think they are grossly exaggerated but it remains to be seen what happens.<BR/><BR/>Others like Reggie Middleton, Mish, Naked Capitalism, etc, have an overly simplistic view of the situation. I would put Cramer into that camp as well. I mean, just look at their opinion regarding Berkshire Hathaway Assurance. They think that Berkshire is going to crush Ambac, MBIA, and others. Well, that may happen but not any time soon. Berkshire is only licensed in one state (maybe a few more by now) and it is capitalized with $100 million. How much are they going to cover with that? Even if you go with 100-to-1 ratio, that's only like $10 billion (about 1/4 of the annual US muni bond market if I recall). Others speculating that private equity is going to set up shop and take market share will also be proven wrong. Things may happen but it will take a long time (years). It's hard to get licensed in all the states and to develop the risk models to do anything.<BR/><BR/>There are some government hearings being set up. Not sure what to make of that...<BR/><BR/>If Ambac can get around $1.5 billion around the current stock price, it won't be too disastrous. It's not great but it isn't as crazy as when the stock was $5.<BR/><BR/>On another note, I don't think the original party that Ambac probably had lined up (before the Moody's threat undid everything) was Wilbur Ross. My impression is that Ross started to seriously investigate the monolines recently (but he did make a comment about a month ago to Bloomberg where he said that whoever that survives will do very well).Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-56275441694991081872008-01-25T14:36:00.000-05:002008-01-25T14:36:00.000-05:00Honestly, I'm about ready to lose my mind. The thi...Honestly, I'm about ready to lose my mind. The things you hear on TV - it's unbelievable. For some reason everybody seems to think that scratching a few numbers on a napkin gets you an automatic invitation into the muni bond insurance club. Next week, they say, there will be no less than 3 or 4 new entrants.<BR/><BR/>Right now, a guy from Egan Jones is stating that 200 billion is needed to bail out the monoliners. For the industry, he expects 40 billion in losses, with Ambac getting hit for 10.<BR/><BR/>Add in Ackman, Cramer, Middleton, Mish, Naked Capitalism, every blogger on Alpha FT, CNBC.<BR/><BR/>Here's a humorous example from yesterday on CNBC TV. Wisconsin's insurance head Dilweg was being interviewed about Ambac.<BR/><BR/>Dilweg: Ambac is a good company. We are in contact with them daily. They are currently in talks with credible parties.<BR/><BR/>Ratigan/CNBC: Who?<BR/><BR/>Dilweg: Well,for obvious reasons, I can't really talk about who.<BR/><BR/>Ratigan: Then, excuse me, sir. Why are we having this conversation?<BR/><BR/>Dilweg: Uhh, because you invited me.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I don't know. Besides myself, if it hadn't been for such a major screw up, I'm almost feeling sorry for Ambac & MBI. Everyone talks about how great this country is because of our willingness to step up and take risks. Ironically Ambac takes a chance insuring that risk, loses and gets vilified for it. They aren't responsible for the subprime meltdown. We are. <BR/><BR/>They've become a convenient scapegoat for this event. Stupid.cakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08156778168786135341noreply@blogger.com