tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post5319584715298488467..comments2024-03-29T01:35:09.550-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Nokia and its Risky Strategic Bet [VERY LONG]Sivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-46079555454592665612011-05-09T20:29:00.184-04:002011-05-09T20:29:00.184-04:00Sorry about the late reply...
Montpelier Re is my...Sorry about the late reply...<br /><br />Montpelier Re is my biggest holding but if I made some mistakes with it. I'm positive since purchase but return hasn't been great. I overpaid for it a few years ago.<br /><br />I am not sure how to value insurance companies but I would only buy MRH at 0.7x book value or thereabouts. These mega-catastrophe companies deserve a discount. Right now book value is around $23 vs a share price of 18, for a P/BV of around 0.8.<br /><br />If I went back in time, I wouldn't buy Montpelier Re again. I came to the conclusion that I have no idea of the risk inherent in a company like this. It's a black box and who knows if it's going to blow up when the next hurricane hits. I have thought about buying MRH recently (after the Tokyo losses), as well as during the financial crisis when it was very cheap, but I had no confidence in the company. I have come to the conclusion that if one doesn't have confidence in the company during crises, the company isn't for me.Sivaram Velauthapillainoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-67975825021482355772011-03-16T00:11:19.000-04:002011-03-16T00:11:19.000-04:00Notice MRH is your big holding. what do you thing ...Notice MRH is your big holding. what do you thing MRH IV is ? Are you buying it on dip due its still not known losses on Japan tragedy?Ashish Guptanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-28311394939377591402011-03-07T20:59:42.000-05:002011-03-07T20:59:42.000-05:00I think Nokia optimists were expecting the Symbian...I think Nokia optimists were expecting the Symbian+MeeGo combination to succeed. If I was a Nokia shareholder, I would be hoping for that as well. The problem with going with Windows Phone 7, at least from Nokia's perspective, is that they lose control and potentially significant mobile service/app revenue.<br /><br />As for Android, I agree with you and think Nokia was better off with a Microsoft OS. It would have been difficult for Nokia to differentiate with so many Android phones, not to mention some really poor cheap ones out there.<br /><br />Do you think tablets will be a threat to smartphones? Do you see yourself carrying around a small tablet (may work in a work or school environment) instead of a mobile phone?Sivaram Velauthapillainoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-6432258870239289222011-03-07T09:46:18.000-05:002011-03-07T09:46:18.000-05:00I don't see how anyone could not like Nokia...I don't see how anyone could not like Nokia's decision unless they're personally invested in Symbian. Bottom line is that Symbian was going nowhere, so what is the loss? WP7 already has more market share than Symbian. No other company builds the phone and writes the OS except Apple, with that in mind, lets celebrate Nokia freeing themselves from competing against unbeatable magical devices. <br /><br />There is going to be a merging of the two halves of computing here in a couple years, the dominant PC side, and the upstart mobile side, the PC side is going to move into mobile rather than the reverse. (Only Apple can resist that because they're closed off). Android is decent, but its kind of a joke too. You know that thing Steve talks about, fragmentation? Its hellaciously bad for Android, the future looks dim for Android IMO. Look, I spent $600 on a phone 7-8 months ago and Android has progressed through 3 iterations and I've gotten one of those iterations a full 3-4 months after everyone else. Likely my $600 phone will never be updated again making it an outdated brick in mere months (also motorola's fault). MS understands how to make an OS run on millions of different combinations of hardware, so I think they will focus on creating that sort of ecosystem again. I would love to see a phone ecosystem where you can install an OS of choice just as you can with current PC's, I think a lot of people would naturally expect things to head that way because people are going to start demanding that they get more out of their hardware...Modulo Mannoreply@blogger.com