tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post4219626304702449963..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: IEA forecasts oil demand contraction... biggest decline since 1982Sivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-8630595517512757212009-05-17T20:13:00.001-04:002009-05-17T20:13:00.001-04:00I don't know if you are from Canada or not but her...I don't know if you are from Canada or not but <A HREF="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090515.wcover0515/BNStory/energy/home" REL="nofollow">here is an article in the paper</A> about Total that you may find interesting.Sivaramnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-3194873739196625052009-05-17T19:42:00.001-04:002009-05-17T19:42:00.001-04:00I think your investment will be fine. I don't ...I think your investment will be fine. I don't really follow oil companies anymore so I don't have a strong opinion on any of them. The supermajors will survive through any situation so the risk seems low. The real question would be wehther they will outperform other large-cap companies.<br /> <br />I think the only ones that should really worry about oil supply & demand or various other issues are macro investors or contrarians trying to buy something extremely undervalued. I have an interest in macro and that's why I mention some of these things. Passive investors or those diversifying into various sectors probably shouldn't worry about the daily supply & demand fluctuations.Sivaramnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-44367005065210159602009-05-17T06:41:00.001-04:002009-05-17T06:41:00.001-04:00I've just bought shares in Total (TOT) with money ...I've just bought shares in Total (TOT) with money I've saved. This supplements the Chevron (CVX) and Shell (RDS.A) shares I already own.<br /> <br />This is primarily a rebalancing of asset allocation, not an attempt to time the oil. I bought CVX and RDS.A in late 2006, and have added several times to my account, but never bought any more shares in oil companies, partly due to the huge spike in oil prices.<br /> <br />The 3 combined are currently about 12% of my portfolio.<br /> <br />I expect oil prices to be very volatile, but I think the dividends paid by these companies will be less volatile. Current dividend yields for these companies are considerably higher than gov't bonds, money market, CD's, or any form cash (investing in corporate bonds is outside my circle of competence).<br /> <br />I also view these holdings as 'insurance'. In the event of an oil crisis, oil companies will fare much better than many other companies.MrParkerBohnnoreply@blogger.com