tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post2855767924026207116..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Super contango in oil may hurt oil bullsSivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-78205245898853573582009-01-15T12:01:00.000-05:002009-01-15T12:01:00.000-05:00Morgan Stanley agrees with your observation about ...Morgan Stanley agrees with your observation about the oil contango:<BR/><A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ8zTUi12IkY&refer=home" REL="nofollow">bloomberg article</A>vladohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17573273060469187424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-18764814632903984672009-01-12T19:13:00.000-05:002009-01-12T19:13:00.000-05:00I'm bearish on oil so you are not going to like my...I'm bearish on oil so you are not going to like my answer :)<BR/><BR/>I'm not an expert on futures or oil but my guess is that the futures price will <B><I>fall</I></B> as these contracts get rolled over and we move forward. Ignoring the passive investors, an investor looking at buying a futures contract (long) would be less likely to go long at high (future) prices. <BR/><BR/>The OPEC budget situation is exaggerated in my opinion. It wasn't even 4 years ago when all these countries had ample money. It's hard to imagine that the budget situation would have altered so much in 4 years that these countries would be bankrupt at $30 or $40 oil. Another thing to keep in mind is that the strengthening of the US$, along with decline in production costs, means that their profits will be strong.<BR/><BR/>Even countries facing problems like Russia should be in better shape than widely assumed. The massive plunge in the Ruble hurts Ruble-denominated assets but helps the government and the oil & gas exporters.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-89834107406802852382009-01-12T18:05:00.000-05:002009-01-12T18:05:00.000-05:00What will be the catalyst that finally ends this e...What will be the catalyst that finally ends this extreme state of contango? Further cuts by OPEC, in the face of enormous budget crunches in the petro-states? Exhaustion of all available storage space? I am a long-term oil ultra-bull, but I have refrained from investing in the 2x ETN due to the roll costs. Oil at $250, by way of what? $25? $13?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14510292460566239318noreply@blogger.com