tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post2142504244370535660..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Bill Miller 2Q 2008 Shareholder CommentarySivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-10954406480055206862008-07-31T18:19:00.000-04:002008-07-31T18:19:00.000-04:00byw, Sivaram, if Your Main Main beat my allocation...byw, Sivaram, if Your Main Main beat my allocation, that probably means the deflationary collapse I am afraid of has been averted. Which means that magical thinking and hoping for the best (otherwise known as optimisim) actually do work!<BR/><BR/>In that case, I have no problem w/ Your Main man "beating" me. We all get to be employed, live and eat.<BR/><BR/>HOWEVER, i have a feeling that if Your Main Man doesn't shape up in the next 12 months, he will get fired.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-70244877631432399832008-07-31T18:10:00.000-04:002008-07-31T18:10:00.000-04:00I shorted profitably for about 2years until March ...I shorted profitably for about 2years until March this year, but then things got crazy enough that I don't feel I have the edge to keep shorting, so I went to cash. I thought that was clear in the my previous posts (and taunts). What happened in 2007 and early this year was a once-in-a-lifetime shorting opportunity that convinced me to give it a try.<BR/><BR/>I'll repeat again: shorting is incredibly tough and psychologically taxing. While I do mock You Main Man a lot and actively wish for his public humiliation, I don't _root_ for the whole system to do a deflationary collapse -- though I think there is a significant chance that it could.<BR/><BR/>The trend following models I follow are long-only. The models are all signaling sitting in cash. That's why I'm sitting in cash, except for a small gold position as a hedge against some real craziness.<BR/><BR/>Sitting in cash is pretty boring, hence I amuse myself by shooting my breeze here.<BR/><BR/>Btw, the trend following model I use is published as a paper ("A Quantitative Approach To Tactical Asset Allocation") by Mebane Faber on his website. It is very simple. I thought I've given you guys the link already (It's in one of the past reply to ContrarianDutch where I was especially sarcastic). The instructions about how the model works is pretty explicit. I can't help you if you choose not to read it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-45615476635788387262008-07-31T16:31:00.000-04:002008-07-31T16:31:00.000-04:00Synchro, What is this?I am on holiday for a few we...Synchro, <BR/><BR/>What is this?<BR/><BR/>I am on holiday for a few weeks and almost the moment I return, after taunting us for months with your vaunted (yet nebulous) trend-following strategies you suddenly confess to being a secret contrarian?<BR/><BR/>I am amazed!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-56447334104391090152008-07-31T15:48:00.000-04:002008-07-31T15:48:00.000-04:00Is it fair to say you expect deflationary threats ...Is it fair to say you expect deflationary threats to be stronger than inflationary threats? Or do you expect to shift if inflation risks rise?<BR/><BR/>I'll go out on a limb and say that Bill Miller will beat you (starting now) over the next 3 years.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-30630891731068084452008-07-31T14:33:00.000-04:002008-07-31T14:33:00.000-04:00Allow me to explain my retort:My personal allocati...Allow me to explain my retort:<BR/><BR/>My personal allocation right now is 10% T-Bill, 30% 1-3Yr Treasury, 40% 3-7Tr US Treasury, 15% gold bullion, and 5% gold stocks.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure if it's a good use of your time, but if you have nothing else to do, then benchmark this against ANY other asset classes or combination thereof.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-60288103938829486172008-07-31T14:20:00.000-04:002008-07-31T14:20:00.000-04:00Easy. Cash.Easy. Cash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-12482696278457034722008-07-31T10:16:00.000-04:002008-07-31T10:16:00.000-04:00Since everything was so obvious before ;) what is ...Since everything was so obvious before ;) what is the obvious investment right now? How about if we start benchmarking you?Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-24170740393942547522008-07-30T22:39:00.000-04:002008-07-30T22:39:00.000-04:00The inherent sheer arrogance of the man can't help...The inherent sheer arrogance of the man can't help to come out in a supposedly semi-mea culpa piece.<BR/><BR/>Was it "obvious" to bet against housing, financials, and retailers?<BR/><BR/>I remember throughout 2006 and 2007 when I was shorting housing stocks, retailers, the banks, the subprime, and the such, you simply CAN NOT AVOID the daily chorus of bottom-calling and derision of the doom-and-gloomers from Bubblevision talking heads and Wall Street analysts. It takes real stamina and endurance to ignore the incessant bullish chatter and focus on the trend and keep shorting and pressing.<BR/><BR/>I am also amused by his sour-grape comment about the supposed "momentum investors" or "trend followers" that all they have to do is read the newspapers and make excess return. But then again, I have never heard that Your Main Man is known for graciousness.<BR/><BR/>I do agree with him on one thing: the credit crisis WILL end at some point, but we are not quite there yet.<BR/><BR/>Sometimes, a bombed-out stock is indeed just CRAP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com