tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post2040704970931209266..comments2024-03-27T11:08:31.557-04:00Comments on Can Turtles Fly?: Societe Generale says Value May Start to Outperform GrowthSivaram Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-91553353468007358602008-08-14T12:40:00.000-04:002008-08-14T12:40:00.000-04:00On a serious note, I DO scan everything you link. ...On a serious note, I DO scan everything you link. I might not read them fully but do check them out. For instance, I quickly dismissed your John Hempton blog because it is mostly economics and mostly the superbear opinion. It's worth reading but I already get that from a few others.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Anyway, my intention is not to compare Miller to Buffett. No one is as good as Buffett--either now or in the last 100+ years--so you wouldn't catch me equating Miller to him. My point was to attack the argument against Miller than one shouldn't average down, or that averaging down isn't some "valid" technique. It's perfectly fine. I just brought up the point of Buffett as an example ot show that Buffett often averages down if the price drops below his intrinsic value calculation.<BR/><BR/>You are arguing about margin of safety but--correct me if I'm wrong--you don't even use value investing. Aren't you more of a trend follower (hence don't even use margin of safety as value investing defines it)?<BR/><BR/>You argument is somewhat similar to <A HREF="http://seekingalpha.com/article/90539-value-investors-remember-margin-of-safety" REL="nofollow">Dave Merkel's argument against Miller in this post</A>. Well, you should read JasonC's post in the comments area for a rebuttal. You will notice that most of the Miller detractors invoke macro arguments which have little to do with value investing (in fact, lack of reliance on macro is what separates value investing from other styles). One can say Miller doesn't know what he is doing or he isn't a good investor or whatever; but arguing that there is no margin of safety is a weak argument. <BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><I>Synchro: "All I want is a time- and money-wasting courtroom SPECTACLE!"</I><BR/><BR/>What's this? Some scheme to enrich lawyers? You wouldn't have a past life as a lawyer, would you? ;)<BR/><BR/>Besides, aren't the battles between the bulls and bears, with 1% moves seemingly every day, enough entertainment for you? ;)Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-24422473435297253932008-08-14T01:05:00.000-04:002008-08-14T01:05:00.000-04:00Wrt to Ackman and MBIA, you missed my point: I DO...Wrt to Ackman and MBIA, you missed my point: I DON'T CARE who wins and who lose.<BR/><BR/>All I want is a time- and money-wasting courtroom SPECTACLE!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-63900081466006695472008-08-14T01:01:00.000-04:002008-08-14T01:01:00.000-04:00You know.....at least show some gratitude for the ...You know.....at least show some gratitude for the effort I made in cutting and pasting the links....It's really hard work! At least as hard as amateurs doing "fundamental" security analysis, or calcuating "intrinsic value"!<BR/><BR/>Juxtiposing YMM (Your Main Man) with Triple-O (Oracle of Omaha) is an interesting rhetorical trick when YMM used it in his 2nd quarter commentary. It's a nice try in confusing the issue, but...I am reminded of Lloyd Bentsen's retort to "Potatoe" Dan Quayle during the 1988 vice-presential debate: "Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy."<BR/><BR/>I would tell Your Main Man: "Gambler, you are no Warren Buffet."<BR/><BR/>When it comes to calculating odds or margin of safety, YMM has been abhorently bad. As a money manager, he should have been fired. But, knowing how even a broken clock is right twice a day, YMM will look "brilliant" again. Hell, he may even beat my "all-cash-all-the-time" strategy for the next 3 years. That'd be just fine. But let's not pretend that his 15-year track record until 2006 is some kind of unique accomplishment. At best, it is indistinguishable from chance. <BR/><BR/>PS: In case the Bentsen Retort went over your head, here is the wiki reference:<BR/><BR/>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Senator,_you_are_no_Jack_KennedyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-37190487375308991262008-08-13T10:51:00.000-04:002008-08-13T10:51:00.000-04:00I don't know what your linked articles show. I mea...I don't know what your linked articles show. I mean, it's all rear-view thinking with a trader mentality. People don't believe in averaging down? LOL Tell that to Warren Buffett. Only traders say that. <BR/><BR/><BR/>As for Ackman being sued, I'm totally against it but it's funny that you think that Ackman will somehow come out on top. Recall that MBIA bankrupted Ackman's last fund. Corporations are generally far more powerful than funds. Ackman's funds are bigger now but if investors flee his fund (like they did last time) he'll have a hard time surviving.Sivaram Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06361276466660862882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6798074091942701235.post-79264866046377459882008-08-12T23:36:00.000-04:002008-08-12T23:36:00.000-04:00A couple comments about Your Main Man and his self...A couple comments about Your Main Man and his self-destructive gambling behavior in the blogosphere:<BR/><BR/>http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/08/ business-bright-for-blindfolded-dart.html<BR/><BR/>http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/08/12/ falling-stocks-cheap-or-cursed<BR/><BR/>Btw, John Hempton's thoughtful blog is very much worth reading.<BR/><BR/>Also, a catch-up comment wrt to MBIA "contemplating" suing Ackman: I am all for it. The discovery process is going to be AWESOME for Ackman in terms of when those guys at MBIA know what and when.<BR/><BR/>Do it...MBIA!...DO IT!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com