- ► 2012 (61)
- ► 2011 (118)
- ► 2010 (228)
- Operating in heavily protected markets
- Financial Times interview with Michael Pettis
- Investors should never forget the two types of lev...
- Sunday Spectacle XXVIII
- Articles for the week ending September 26th of 200...
- Who would have thought? Muni bond yields hit a 42 ...
- Bond yields during three deflationary busts - 1990...
- Thoughts on Jim Grant's change into bull costume
- Sunday Spectacle XXVII
- Articles for the week ending September 19th of 200...
- A value investor takes a quick look at Lexmark
- The casino known as the Chinese stock market
- One analyst forecasts a huge bubble in China...but...
- I thought sovereign wealth funds were swimming in ...
- The left wing & protectionism
- Sunday Spectacle XXVI
- Articles that may be of interest - week ending Sep...
- US trade deficit starts expanding
- Barrick issues shares to close out hedges
- Being a contrarian
- A Capitalist
- Sunday Spectacle XXV
- Articles for a Labour Day weekend
- Gold closes in on $1000...Fifth time lucky?
- Hugh Hendry August commentary... sticking with his...
- Deutche Bank liquidating its double oil ETN (DXO; ...
- Surprising to see the long bond sell off today
- The Grave Dancer fell into a grave but is trying t...
- ▼ September (28)
- ► 2008 (517)
Popular Posts (last 30 days)
Some articles... US GDP growth comes in at -0.3% (Bloomberg): I'm playing around with a contrarian macro call for a better economic ...
A Young Warren Buffett In a comment to one of my posts , Mark Carter, who incidentally appears to have a good blog worth checking o...
In the Market: The Illustrated History of the Financial Markets by Christopher Finch Published in 2001 Abbeville Press Quick Descripti...
Netflix Headquarters (Image source: Getty Images, via Huffington Post ) I took a look at some of the qualitative aspects Netflix (NFLX...
Even though I have no access to their publications, based on what little I hear from them, I'm a big fan of GaveKal. Jim Puplava at Fina...
(source: Toronto Sun ) Yes, for those following this blog and this story, the Burj Dubai has been renamed to Burj Khalifa, in order to ap...
Here are some articles on various topics that interest me. Click through if any of the topics interest you: Vietnam: One of the worst marke...
Why I Don't Care If We Are In a Bear Market, and Some Random Articles for the Week That Started the Bear Market TalkActually, the talk of a bear market has been ongoing for months, if not years. However, this is the first week where I am seeing sentiment s...
It's hard to imagine how I haven't purchased a stock in over two years — certainly not a good way to succeed in investing :( One ...
(This post has nothing to do with investing and deals with philosophy) Rationalists vs Empiricists I ran Alex Hutchinson's thought...
abitibi (ABY/A.TO) AbitibiBowater (ABH) ABN-Amro (ABN) Addax Petroleum (TSX: AXC) Africa agriculture AIG Alliance Semiconductor (PK: ALSC) alternative assets Amazon (AMZN) Ambac (ABK) Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Andy Xie Apple (AAPL) Asia Aspen Exploration (OTC: ASPN) Australia and New Zealand Bank of America Barnes and Noble (BKS) Bear Stearns (BSC) Beazer Homes (BZH) Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE) ben Benjamin Graham Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) Bill Miller bonds and credit instruments book industry BOOK SUMMARY BP brands Brazil Britain BRK.B) Bruce Berkowitz Bruce Greenwald business analysis business culture BYD (HK: 1211) Cal-Maine (CALM) Canada capitalism career celestica (CLS) Charles Brandes Charles de Vaulx Charlie Munger Chesapeake (CHK) China Chris Anderson Clarus (PK: CLRS) Comdisco (OTC: CDCO) commentary commodities communications contrarian corporate accounting corporate governance corporate law corporate strategy crime currencies David Einhorn David Rosenberg Dean Foods (DF) deflation delta financial (DFC) demographics Diagoe (DEO) digital economy dividends Don Coxe Dubai Dynegy (DYN) Eastman Kodak (EK) economics econopolitics education Edward Lampert electric vehicles emerging markets En Pointe Technologies (ENPT) energy Energy East (EAS) Enron entrepreneurship Europe executive compensation Expedia (EXPE) Facebook (FB) fair-value accounting financials Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG; TSX: FDG.UN) forestry Foundry (FDRY) Francis Chou fundamental analysis Gary Shilling GenOn (GEN) Geoff Gannon George Soros global Globaltrans (LSE: GLTR) gold Goldman Sachs Google government Great Depression great investors guest-tek (GTK.TO) harmony (HMY) healthcare Hugh Hendry humour Icahn Enterprises (IEP) Iceland India insightful institutional investing interesting investing track record investment evaluation investment plan investment psychology investment strategy Jaclyn (JLN) Jae Jun James Montier Jamie Dimon Japan Jared Diamond jds uniphase (JDSU; JDS.TO) Jean-Marie Eveillard Jeremy Grantham Jim Chanos Jim Grant Jim Rogers John Hussman John Mauldin John Paulson John Templeton Kanaden (8081) Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP) Keyence (6861) Krishnamurthy 'Nandu' Narayanan Latin America Lehman Brothers Lexmark (LXK) Li Lu liquidation Live Nation (LYV) Lloyd Blankfein Louis-Vincent Gave Magic Software (MGIC) Malcolm Gladwell management Marc Faber Mark Zuckerberg market valuation Martin Whitman Mathstar (PK: MATH) MBIA (MBI) media Mega Brands (TSX: MB) menu mergers and acquisitions Michael Lewis Michael Pettis Miscellaneous mobile devices Mohnish Pabrai monoline bond insurers Montpelier Re (MRH) name Nassim Nicholas Taleb Netflix (NFLX) new york times (NYT) Newbie Thoughts newspapers newsprint Nokia (NOK) North Korea opinion origin owens corning (OC; OCWAZ.PK) Paul Desmaris Paul Krugman Penn National Gaming (PENN) personal finance Peter Thiel Phil Falcone politics portfolio performance portfolio transactions Prem Watsa Priszm Income Fund (TSX: QSR.UN) private equity Puget Energy (PSD) Pulte Homes (PHM; PHA) Raj Rajaratnam's Galleon Ray Dalio real estate Reed Hastings reference revlon (REV) Richard Branson Robert Prechter Russell Napier Russia Sam Zell Sears Holdings (SHLD) Seiko (TSE: 8580) Seth Klarman shareholder rights shoe pavilion (SHOE) Southwestern (SWG.TO) spectrum brands (SPC) sports Sprott Molybdenum (TSX: MLY) St. Joe Company (JOE) Stephen Jarislowsky Stephen Roach Steve Jobs Sunday Spectacle Suruga (1880) Takefuji (8564) Talisman Energy (TLM) tech cyclicals technology Ted Turner The Year That Was Thornburg Mortgage (TMA; TMA-E) Tim McElvaine timber Todd Combs Toronto TorStar (TS.B) tourism Toyota Industries (6201) traders Tribune (TRB) turtle Turtle Awards useful USG (USG) Verenex Energy (TSX: VNX) Walter Schloss Warren Buffett watch list actions WikiLeaks William Ackman year-end review yen carry-trade
About This Blog
An investment blog chronicling a slow-moving turtle's attempt at gaining financial independence. Mostly contrarian investing with value-investing tilt and influenced by macroeconomics. Feel free to visit my non-investment blog describing my life and thoughts.
- Sivaram Velauthapillai
Most of you may have seen The Wall Street Journal article by Jim Grant, where he morphs from a bear into a bull. Surprising to some perhaps. I thought I would post my views (made on a GuruFocus message board) on his opinion piece.
Jim Grant isn't just any other bear. The fact that he is bullish is big news, at least to me.
However, it's not clear to me if he is bullish on assets like stocks and bonds, or if he is bullish on the economy. The two, as historians would know, are not correlated (for example, the economy actually did quite well in the 70's but the stock market did not; conversely, the stock market did well from 1932 to, say, 1938, but the economy did not.)
If he is turning bullish on stocks, I think he may be a bit late to be riding the bulls and I would bet against him. But if he expecting a strong economy, he may turn out to be right (although I'm still not convinced.)
The way I look at it, the forecasts come down to whether you believe in Keynesian Economics or Austrian Economics. Jim Grant, being the Austrian persuation, is saying that interest rates are too low, and likely at negative real rates, so it makes sense to expect booms. Keynesian-types, in contrast, seem to suggest that we have hit a liquidity trap and interest rates may even be too high. I lean more towards the latter, which is more consistent with my tilt towards deflation.
It remains to be seen what actually materializes. Nearly all assets--stocks, bonds, emerging markets, real estate, commodities--have rallied but I'm not sure that it due to negative real rates. Instead, it appears to be driven by fiscal spending (especially in China and USA, but in other countries as well.) The real test is what happens when fiscal stimulus dissapears.
The amazing thing to me is that long-term bond yields remain low. I don't know if the FedRes monetization has anything to do with this, but if we just take the signal for what it is, it may be important. The ultimate issue is still the inflation vs deflation question and the bond market seems to be betting against other assets. Bonds are generally thought to be more correct than stocks but that hasn't been the case this year. The super-high default rates forecast by the bond market early in the year is nowhere to be found. Tags: Jim Grant